“Do you want to become an extraordinary businessman? Let’s play an easy game, “Jars of Balls”, showing who you are and how to make this expectation come true”. That’s an extremely impressive story that I am really excited about after finishing the 1st part of Effectual Entrepreneurship. Contradictorily and surprisingly, the interesting insights behind that story tell us the primary natures of an entrepreneur. You, like me before, may fall into a questionable space. However, let’s discover the story because the game has just begun.
Three are three jars: the one having an equal number of red balls and green ball, the another containing balls with unknown number of red balls, and the last one without any available information. The player wins if picking as many red balls as possible. Let’s image the game in terms of the fighting business environment: You, a business starter, are standing at the point of jumping into the one of three markets: predictable, risky or unknowable. Each of them is a different edge.
Prediction is safe but boring. Most of us are going to pickup the first jar because there are exactly red balls. Undoubtedly, this choice is the safest due to predictable situation. Why do I have to consider the others? The game ends, yet the transparent market that kills creativity limits the choice. With the 2nd biggest coffee producers in the world, most of business starters in Vietnam want to begin their career by building a coffee shop. They have an assurance that their business is acceptable in that market. Nevertheless, by the bomb of emerging coffee shops in Vietnam, the waves in the red ocean[1] pull them into the unsound competitive war. Therefore, should they choose the second jar?
That’s a joke if you don’t think entrepreneurs are risk-takers. If choosing the second jar containing balls, you overcome the game mathematically, analytically, and controllably. Relying upon the existing historical data, trials, or errors, decision-making under risk involves estimating likely changes, calculating the possibility of outcome, and plan proactive actions. I had disagreed with the argument that entrepreneurs do work on controlling risk much. Instead, they accept risk as a given and work on controlling the returns, and assume personal responsibility for influencing outcome. Is it useless to predict the risk always happing? Entrepreneurs are outcome influencers in the levels of risk rather than risk-takers.
“How do I control a future I cannot predict” is the unknowable game of entrepreneurs. Uncertainty in the third jar is not only unknown but also unknowable. It becomes inspirable, challengeable, movable, flexible and curious. Entrepreneurs play an unpredictable game and have the great possible of failure, don’t they? Are they heroes or stupid guys? In the blue ocean[2], they must as smart as possible to discover their right paths. They are not heroes but future controllers. They are not stupid guys but who challenge loss and failure. “Uncertainty is at the heart of real value in entrepreneurial opportunity” is what the entire story’s about.
In conclusion, it’s insufficient to recognize the whole principles of entrepreneurship with few words. “Jars of Balls” illuminates the pivotal signs of an entrepreneur: extraordinary forecaster, future controller, and outcome influencer. These signs make a mirror to help business starters identify who they are and how they should do to become the true entrepreneurs. Max Levchin with PayPal, Tim Brady with Yahoo, Blake Ross with Firefox, are there the basic principles for being successful entrepreneurs? The answer must be YES, but that is a different story.
[From the assignment 2 of Entreprenuership course]
(The image is from http://www.sharpastoast.com)
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